2025 Vietnam Economic Growth Report

Executive Summary

Vietnam's economy continues to demonstrate robust growth momentum in 2025, with GDP expanding 7.96 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. Vietnam's GDP hit 7.52% growth in H1 2025, the highest first-half performance since 2011, led by industry and services. The first half of 2025 recorded growth of 7.52%, marking the highest mid-year growth rate since 2011, driven by strong performance in services and manufacturing sectors, despite global trade tensions and US tariffs.

Key Economic Indicators 2025

Unemployment Rate

Q1 2025: 2.20% (down from 2.22% in Q4 2024)

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

First 5 months of 2025: $18.4 billion (up 51% year-on-year)

First Half 2025: $21.51 billion, 32.6% year-on-year increase

Sectoral Analysis

Primary Growth Drivers

Services Sector
Manufacturing Sector
Export Industries
Banking Sector (17% earnings increase)

Retail Performance

Q1 2025 retail sales: 1.708 quadrillion VND ($66.83 billion), 9.9% YoY growth

Challenges and Risk Factors

Global Trade Tensions
US Tariff Policies
Geopolitical Instability
FDI Overdependence
Macroeconomic Stability

Historical Comparison

2024: 7.1% GDP growth

2025 (forecast): Growth may moderate due to external factors

Year-on-year GDP growth (2020-2025): 3.21%, 4.85%, 5.42%, 3.46%, 5.98%, 6.93%

Economic Outlook and Projections

Near-term Prospects (2025)

Vietnam's economy started 2025 strongly, with 6.9% YoY growth in the first quarter. However, the outlook is more challenging amid global trade tensions and high uncertainty. Vietnam's economy is expected to maintain solid growth despite global uncertainties.

Key Supporting Factors

Robust FDI inflows
Low unemployment
Controlled inflation
Export competitiveness
Parliamentary Support

Risk Mitigation Strategies

Diversify export markets
Strengthen domestic demand
Enhance economic resilience
Maintain macroeconomic stability

Conclusion

Vietnam's economic performance in 2025 demonstrates the country's resilience and growth potential. While external challenges persist, strong fundamentals including low unemployment, controlled inflation, and robust FDI inflows position the economy well for sustained development. The gap between government targets and international forecasts suggests a cautiously optimistic but realistic approach to growth expectations is warranted.